Friday, December 5, 2008

Dec 5 Post

Today has to go down as the craziest day I’ve ever seen. We had an awful jobs numbers and we rallied 259 points. The only thing in the market that got it right was oil. Oil dropped 6% to a 4 year low and ended the day at $40.81. Just to give you an example of the craziness of stocks today….I own an oil tanker company, Frontline, and it was up 5%. We got the bad news about China’s low car sales in Nov. this morning and during the day we found out that Venezuela car sales dropped 68.1% in November. Frontline shouldn’t go up on that news especially with oil down 6%.
Job loss in November was -533K. To give you an idea of how many people that is….Oklahoma City has a population of 531,324. Job losses in September and October were also revised. Sept. was -284K revised to -403K and Oct was -240K revised to -320K. That is 1.25 million jobs lost in 3 months. That is equivalent to everyone in Dallas losing their jobs in just 3 months (population is 1.21 million). The ‘experts” are doing their best to put a positive spin on the -533K loss today. One positive is this loss as a percentage is only the 40th worst (tell that to the 533K that lost their jobs). Another is that this will force the government to bailout the bankrupt 3. Another one was the government will bring out a huge stimulus plan. Lastly, this will force Obama to not raise taxes. I guess the government will save us all….but aren’t we the government?
Daily Job Loss Update:
GM cuts 2,000 jobs
Legg Mason cuts 200 jobs
Worthington Indus cut 300 jobs

Here’s more bad news that came out today. Late mortgage payments and the rate of home loans in foreclosure rose to record highs in the third quarter. Every state but Alaska had an increase in the 90 days or more delinquent category.
With the increase of job losses, growing number of people unable to pay their mortgages on time, record high loans going into foreclosures, 1 month T-Bill at .01%, 3 month T-Bill at .01% and 6 month at .18%, and all T-Notes are at record low yields….I find it hard to get interested in buying any stock. I took this as an opportunity to started scaling into SKF (double short financials).
Oh by the way….Chrysler hired Jones Day to prepare for possibility of bankruptcy

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