Nov 28

Today is a half day and the volume should be very low. I’m trying to get as much information as I can about Black Friday. What I’m seeing so far looks dreadful but it will be interesting to get the data over the weekend. I can’t see how it will be good. I am getting the feeling that the market hasn’t priced in the terrible durable goods numbers. They were over twice as bad as the economist predicted. Panasonic, the biggest maker of consumer electronics, came out with a story yesterday to confirm the bad durable goods numbers. They reduced their annual net income by a whopping 90%, saying demand and prices have fallen as the U.S. financial crisis spread across the globe. Also yesterday I read that the British retailers Woolworth’s and MFI, biggest furniture store in England, have filed for bankruptcy and ArcelorMittal, biggest steel company in the world, is cutting 9000 jobs. If the biggest consumer electronics maker and biggest steelmaker are having trouble, what is happening to the weaker hands? Also the Japan’s recession deepens as factory output slumps. Does anyone need more data to prove the durable goods data? The market hasn’t priced this in at all.